tread softly

This is my beacon

More time wondering what’s wrong

More time entombed

Convincing myself.

Published in: on January 26, 2009 at 6:36 pm  Comments (1)  

one more averaged experts rankings: kickers

gary anderson

I probably won’t draft a kicker unless I’m forced to fill my roster. Maybe, I’ll take one in the last round or two. I know a lot of people feel similarly, so this list is probably not the most useful. However, you can at least use it to grab the best guy available when you finally do take a kicker. There’s so little difference between the kickers that I’m not going to put them in tiers. The tiers are only really useful if you’re trying to decide between positions during the draft. I hope that no one is picking a kicker over a player that might contribute to your team. It’s not that kickers aren’t good point scorers. It’s simply that there is very little difference in the number of points that they score. For the sake of consistency rather than utility, standard deviation follows mean rank follows name. Also, I’m only listing twenty spots. I can’t think of a reason to list more.

stenerud

1. Vinatieri 1.92 1.38
2. Wilkins 3.06 1.43
3. Kaeding 3.12 2.57
4. Gould 5.10 2.38
5. Graham 5.46 2.85
6. Rackers 7.35 2.54
7. Stover 8.08 3.07
8. Elam 8.12 3.01
9. J. Brown 8.91 2.11
10. Akers 11.68 5.42

groza

11. Scobee 11.77 5.42
12. Gostkowski 12.22 4.21
13. Hanson 12.38 4.31
14. Mare 13.58 3.76
15. Nedney 15.04 2.74
16. Kasay 16.45 3.73
17. Nugent 18.27 2.24
18. Lindell 18.55 4.08
19. Reed 19.00 3.05
20. Feely 19.58 4.23

andersen

I have none of my usual erudite comments for this list. I hope that you like the pictures. I will try to provide an update to these lists in a few weeks when we get a bit closer to the start of the season and more people are drafting.

blanda
Published in: on August 2, 2007 at 6:39 pm  Leave a Comment  

Make It Happen

The shadow of your smile

When you have gone

Will color all my dreams

And light the dawn

 

Look into my eyes my love, and see

All the lovely things, you are, to me

 

Our wistful little star

It was far, too high

A teardrop kissed your lips

And so, so did I

 

Now when I remember spring

And every little lovely thing

I will be remembering

The shadow of your smile

Your lovely smile

Some dear friends of mine are quite disconsolate over the chance that the New York Mets Apple won’t be making the trip from Shea to the new stadium. They’ve taken their pleas to the streets, in the form of an online petition, over at www.savetheapple.com and all Mets fans who have ever exulted at the majestic sight of the apple rising from it’s top hat should head over there immediately.

While it can be correctly pointed out that I have no affection for the Mets, I do care greatly for the preservation of certain traditions. This trait has been ingrained upon me from years of going to Wrigley Field. I understand the need for new stadiums, especially one as woeful as Shea. But there are certain aspects of every ballpark that are dear to the hometown faithful. Some of these (Ronnie “Woo Woo” Wickers) can’t be held forever, but the apple can be transferred. It’s delighted fans young and old and I don’t understand why there is even a sliver of doubt about it’s survival. I’d go on, but the case is made far better at SaveTheApple. One day the apple will fall, but it will not be this day! Today the fight begins!

Published in: on July 31, 2007 at 4:25 pm  Comments (1)  

still more averaged experts rankings: team defense edition!

lt

Team defenses. This position frustrates me. The scoring systems always seem off, they have a seemingly disproportionate effect on the outcome of your matchups, and a single defense will wildly fluctuate from week to week in points scored with seemingly little change in their play. It’s not impossible to predict some of these factors, but I usually end up picking a solid defense, in reality, that I will have replaced a quarter through the season with the free agency pool. Maybe, I’m just bad at picking. Maybe, there’s a grand conspiracy against me. Then again, perhaps typing this post in a public place is making me a tad paranoid. Sorry, back to football.

I had to replace one of my sources for this list and the upcoming kicker list because the good folks at fantasyfootballxtreme.com apparently only draft players on offense. It’s possible that I just couldn’t find the link. I also added walterfootball.com because it came up on the first page of a google search for fantasy football rankings, which is good enough credentials for my highly scientific study. At any rate, the list follows the same basic guidelines as before: standard deviation follows mean rank follows team name, standard deviation is a measure of how closely the experts agreed, and my qualitative analysis and statistical expertise both come with strong disclaimers. Away we go.

wilcox

1. Chicago 1.37 0.49
2. Baltimore 1.77 0.60

3. San Diego 3.64 0.82
4. New England 4.06 1.86

5. Miami 8.08 5.11
6. Denver 8.35 2.85
7. Dallas 8.95 2.38
8. Philadelphia 9.12 2.33
9. Pittsburgh 9.15 3.29

10. Carolina 10.68 3.45
11. Jacksonville 10.75 6.50

12. Seattle 13.83 2.15
13. Minnesota 14.00 5.40
14. Green Bay 14.23 5.17

bobby bell

15. Oakland 17.14 3.68
16. San Francisco 17.17 4.28
17. Buffalo 18.18 3.60
18. New York Jets 18.98 4.59

19. Arizona 20.04 6.16
20. New York Giants 20.79 4.88
21. Cincinnati 20.83 7.32
22. Indianapolis 20.92 5.05
23. Atlanta 21.61 6.47
24. Kansas City 21.94 4.72

25. St. Louis 23.40 6.46
26. Tampa Bay 23.90 5.70
27. New Orleans 24.21 2.86
28. Tennessee 25.42 6.83
29. Cleveland 26.75 4.67
30. Washington 26.82 4.68

31. Detroit 29.40 2.34
32. Houston 29.90 1.58

lambert

This number one pick is the first out of these lists with which I find flaw. I’m not bashing Chicago. They have a great defense, easily the best in the NFC and San Diego is a distant third overall. However, Baltimore gets the edge from me. My basis for this assessment is not based on any actual analysis on my part. Rather, I think Chicago is getting a boost here from their super bowl run last season and probably inappropriate comparisons with Bears teams of yore. Furthermore, I have little confidence in the ability of their offense to eat up any significant amount of time. Of course, this criticism can be leveled at Baltimore as well. Perhaps, most significantly, Baltimore just seems like a safer choice. The difference is minimal, and I won’t end up drafting either team, as there will be two opposing managers who value defense more than me. I have a nagging feeling that I should be one of those two managers who grabs a defense seemingly far too early, but I must quell these worries and trust in the analysis of others.

singletary

Continuing down the list, Miami is the next pick that makes me uncomfortable. I’ve been burned by Miami’s defense. It’s hard to work up the nerve to trust again. It seems that some experts share my pain as there was marked disagreement in the rankings. On a sidenote, you should mark the huge gap in mean rank between New England and Miami. If ever a clear tier break existed, it’s right there. New England and Miami are not ranked close to each other, despite going four and five.

The rest of the list steadily loses credibility. The experts just didn’t agree. Cincinnati was ranked from 10th to 28th, so use the second half of this list with extreme caution. Hell, you should apply extreme caution to the use of any of these rankings. Most of the websites make no effort to explain their rankings or even scoring systems. I’m attempting to remember enough statistics to come up with some sort of credibility score. Of course, that might also be nonsense.

walsh

R.I.P Bill Walsh

Published in: on July 30, 2007 at 5:12 pm  Leave a Comment  

ever more averaged experts rankings: te edition!

ozzie newsome

The averaged experts rankings train chugs on. Today, we bring you the tight end list. I should probably do this one last, as I usually use the te spot as my trash position. There will always be managers who draft the top two or three te’s foolishly high, and the rest of the te’s are just too much of a gamble for me to really care. I like having a middling reliable te, and you can almost always get one just before you start picking bench players. No one in their right mind drafts a backup te outside of late bench rounds, anyway, so there’s no reason that a top ten te won’t be available at an appropriate point in a 8-12 team draft. Maybe, if you’re in a league with a huge bench and few active roster spots or a 16+ team league (if so, please invite me), this list will be helpful. Otherwise, you can probably ignore the post and look forward to team defenses and kickers coming soon, or just use it to pick up a late round bargain backup te. In any event, my methodology is the same here as it was for my previous lists. As always, standard deviation follows mean rank (now in bold!) follows name and dubious tiers are plentiful. And away we go.

winslow

1. Gates 1.00 0.00

2. Gonzalez 2.48 1.16

3. Shockey 3.36 0.81
4. Heap 3.98 1.15

5. Crumpler 5.00 1.21

6. Cooley 6.92 1.16
7. Winslow 7.00 1.65
8. V. Davis 7.36 2.18

9. LJ Smith 9.79 1.27
10. Witten 9.96 1.29
11. B. Watson 10.46 1.23

12. Da. Clark 12.94 1.27
13. McMichael 13.17 4.20
14. H. Miller 13.46 2.13

15. Daniels 16.40 2.85
16. Scheffler 17.78 2.88
17. Graham 18.86 2.82
18. E. Johnson 19.75 4.27
19. Olsen 19.96 4.01

20. De. Clark 21.17 4.57
21. Troupe 21.50 2.84
22. Martin 22.03 3.95
23. Pollard 22.29 3.51
24. Scaife 23.19 4.45
25. Z. Miller 24.59 7.21
26. Baker 25.00 3.26
27. M. Lewis 25.91 8.49

28. J. Stevens 28.00 5.04†
29. A. Smith 28.00 3.37*†
30. Royal 29.20 1.10*

casper

*These last two entries went unranked by too many of my sources for me to give them my full support. If anyone knows enough about statistics to know how to account for partial lists in this sort of averaging, I will bequeath to you a nonessential organ of your choosing in return for some help.
†I should give this tie to Smith based on my earlier risk averse use of the lower standard deviation as a tie breaker, but as you can read just above this, Smith’s rank is too shaky to give it to him.

The early tiers are, admittedly, fairly useless. My only issue the top five picks is Shockey. He’s overrated, doesn’t always play and seems like an ass. I would not pick him over Heap, and I might not pick him over Crumpler. That said, I will never have to make that decision because idiots will grab him far above his deserved place in the draft. I would like to end up with Vernon Davis. He would give me a solid 49er to fulfill the necessary support that comes with fanhood. After these picks, the list got increasingly crazy. A fair number of websites only rank about 30-35 te’s. Luckily, they don’t get too crazy. I thought that the standard deviations were surprisingly low for the upper half of the list. There just wasn’t a lot of disagreement among the experts. Actually, Vernon Davis was the only guy who engendered serious disagreement in the top twelve or so, but even that was probably due to confidence in Alex Smith and the niners offense. It makes sense in that tight ends are generally reliable and get short yardage and some touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the agreement among experts coupled with my overall lack of interest in the position gives way to rather scant comments from yours truly. Of the players who did not make the list, the following list at least made most lists: Shiancoe, Pope, Dan Campbell, Wrighster, Wilcox and Heiden. I can’t really imagine being in a situation where it made sense to draft one of them. Of course, those in very large leagues may feel differently.

brent jones

Draft well and good luck.

Note: I like Brent Jones. I’m not saying he’s as good as Winslow, Casper or Newsome.

Published in: on July 27, 2007 at 5:58 pm  Leave a Comment  

even more averaged expert rankings: wr edition!

cat fantasy football

As these averaged expert rankings posts continue, I have less and less to color commentary to provide on the picks. If you read these posts, please, please comment. My own lack of energy for color commentary during the preseason must be made up for somehow. I think we are all looking forward to more in-depth analysis from the good doctor funkypants. This averaged expert rankings list covers wide receivers, although the title may have fooled you. Wide receiver is generally the position that is easiest to exploit in the draft, at least for me. The managers in my leagues tend to throw around wr picks and go for a tight end or a kicker before they’ve secured all of their receivers. Odd, I know. I have no idea if other people have experienced this strange phenomenon. Hopefully, this list will help you get more value out of your wr picks. Without further ado, the list! Ok, a little ado, standard deviation follows mean rank follows name, and my highly suspect tiers once again make an appearance.

1. S. Smith (CAR) 1.92 1.31
2. Ch. Johnson 2.33 1.50
3. Harrison 3.42 1.93
4. Holt 3.75 0.97

5. Owens 4.67 1.30
6. Wayne 5.58 1.24

7. Fitzgerald 7.25 2.60

8. Ro. Williams 9.25 2.18
9. Walker 10.58 1.00

10. Boldin 11.58 4.36
11. Colston 12.67 3.73
12. Houshmandzadeh 12.83 2.92
13. Driver 13.17 3.83
14. Evans 13.58 2.02
15. R. Moss 14.00 4.82
16. A. Johnson 14.33 2.96
17. Burress 15.25 2.05

18. Ward 17.58 1.44

19. S. Moss 21.42 2.87
20. D. Jackson 21.50 4.30
21. Coles 21.75 4.09
22. Brown 22.67 2.46
23. Branch 22.67 5.02

cat ball

24. Edwards 24.17 3.71
25. Chambers 25.17 3.90
26. Galloway 26.00 3.46
27. Glenn 26.75 3.31
28. Ma. Clayton 27.25 5.45
29. Cotchery 28.75 2.56

30. Ca. Johnson 30.58 8.28
31. V. Jackson 31.33 3.55
32. Berrian 31.67 2.61
33. Stallworth 32.42 5.12

34. Jennings 36.42 5.53
35. Curtis 38.17 3.95
36. Porter 38.58 4.64
37. Holmes 38.83 3.83
38. Hackett 38.83 6.21
39. Henderson 40.50 5.25
40. Horn 41.00 7.10
41. Bruce 41.67 7.80
42. M. Jones 41.75 4.81
43. Muhammad 42.00 5.88
44. Kennison 42.58 5.88

45. Mason 45.67 4.54*
46. Bennett 45.67 5.16*
47. Curry 45.82 6.74
48. Furrey 46.36 8.30
49. Marshall 48.67 5.82
50. B. Jones 49.17 8.77

*I give tied mean ranks to the player with the lower standard deviation. I roll risk averse.

cat 4

I really should have cut this list off around 40 as was the original plan, rather than go the full 50. There are a few guys who would have contended in the 40-50 range, such as Welker, who I just left off out of laziness. Some of the receivers in that range dropped out of the top 40 while I was inputing the last two or three sources. I decided to include an extra ten receivers because there were some notables, Bruce, Muhammad, Kennison, Bennett and Furrey, whose placement interested me. Also, it’s pretty clear if you look at the standard deviation numbers that this list is far more contentious than either running backs or quarterbacks. There simply aren’t a lot of receivers, besides Torry Holt, who engender widespread agreement among fantasy experts and players.

My personal feelings on this list are few and far between. I will draft one of the top four receivers, probably Harrison or Holt. In my opinion, Owens isn’t as big of a risk as some people seem to fear. I don’t necessarily trust such concepts as a three year rule for wide receivers. I have trouble believing in rules that are so generalized and based on nebulous concepts like a player’s ability to acclimate to professional football. I don’t doubt that there is some point at which players tend to reach their potential as receivers in professional football, but I’m not sure what that adds to the discussion of draft order. If the experts use it, that’s great, but I’m not going to go through and try to predict something as tenuous as a breakout years. I don’t like longshots. I like a long series of highly probable small gains or for fantasy football a team full of good players with demonstrated skill and steady improvement. I want primary receivers who are going to get yards every single game and are going to get a lot of first looks in the red zone.

packer cat
Published in: on July 24, 2007 at 2:09 pm  Leave a Comment  

more averaged expert rankings

I think the title of this post is fairly descriptive. I’m pretty much going to do the same thing for running backs (in this post) and wide receivers (in the next post) that I did for quarterbacks. This is not complex and presents little new information. On the other hand, it’s the best system that I can (or will) come up with to rank players for a fantasy draft. You can click here read my previous post for a bit more explanation if you’re interested. My framework was essentially the same. I restricted the website pool to those that had updated in the past month, which only took out a couple, and I added about.com’s expert’s ranking that I had overlooked previously. Please refer to the good Dr. Funkypants’ posts for his rankings and quite a bit more color commentary. While I will attempt to draft like a good robot, without emotion and personal bias, I do have opinions that I will include in this post.

expert

First, on the topic of my quarterback rankings. I’m not a huge fan of this year’s qb pool. Manning, Palmer, Brees, I’m happy, but the leagues I play in tend to draft quarterbacks about 2 rounds ahead of their proper place, good for getting a top notch wr crew but bad for my satisfaction with my qb. I know that you don’t need one of the big three to get sufficient production out of this roster spot, but having to start McNair last year in my two qb league was just painful. I apologize if these qb reviews sound overly cranky but damnit I just don’t like Tony fucking Romo in my top ten. Away we go. Brady is overhyped, and someone with a New England bias will probably pick him over the much more sensible Brees or Palmer. Bulger is boring to watch even in the Martz holdover system and without said system, would be significantly lower. McNabb screwed me once with his injuries, and I don’t think that anyone is willing to bet on him staying healthy all season long. Young is, well, young and still something of a question mark in my mind. I like Kitna, but shit, are we really already at Jon Kitna? I guess I would pick Hasselbeck if push came to shove, but he just isn’t going to get great numbers on the Seahawks. I’m not saying these guys suck. I just wish that I had some better options in my top ten qb list. I will have less to say about the running backs.

dogs

Here’s my quick breakdown on the top 38 running backs in fantasy football followed by some opinion. I will break it down into highly dubious tiers, as I did for the quarterbacks. Standard deviation follows mean rank follows name. If you missed my previous explanation of standard deviation, it’s best thought of as how closely the experts agreed on a player’s rank in this context.

1. Tomlinson 1.00 0.00

2. S. Jackson 2.25 0.45
3. Johnson 3.00 0.85

4. Gore 4.67 0.89
5. Alexander 4.83 1.64

6. Westbrook 6.67 1.37
7. Parker 7.08 1.51
8. Addai 7.42 1.31
9. Johnson 8.92 1.24

10. Maroney 11.25 2.42
11. Bush 11.83 2.42
12. McGahee 12.92 1.62
13. Henry 13.08 3.18
14. Brown 14.00 2.83

15. Jones-Drew 15.58 1.88
16. Portis 15.67 3.60
17. James 16.08 3.00
18. Benson 17.33 1.78
19. T. Jones 18.83 1.85
20. McAllister 19.83 3.10

fight over ball

21. Lynch 21.92 2.91*
21. Jacobs 21.92 2.91*
23. C. Williams 23.50 2.61
24. Green 25.42 3.70
25. Barber 25.92 3.87
26. Lewis 26.17 3.01

27. Peterson (MIN) 27.42 4.19
28. D. Williams 28.17 3.21
29. J. Jones 29.42 3.42
30. Dunn 29.75 2.01
31. F. Taylor 30.92 2.19

32. C. Taylor 33.25 5.07
33. Jordan 33.75 5.07
34. T. Bell 34.83 4.88
35. Norwood 34.91 2.91
36. K. Jones 35.58 4.62
37. B. Jackson 36.33 5.45
38. Betts 36.58 4.62

39. Morency 39.58 3.12
40. Foster 39.83 2.62

*Weird, a tie.

Generally speaking, the running back pool is fairly pleasing. I really like the top five. I’m a Niners fan and Gore was my sleeper pick, shining star last year, but I would still be a bit nervous about having him on my fantasy team with that high of a pick. Everyone seems to be behind him, but he’s only had one great season. I probably would take him fourth still, but I’d definitely need a few good weeks before I stopped being nervous about it. Westbrook scares me as an injury risk. Also, it’s mildly disconcerting to see his running yards before you do the math and add up his combined yardage. The rest of the top nine is good. I particularly like Rudi Johnson. I would also be quite happy with Reggie Bush in my second quarterback spot, not to say other guys around him aren’t good. He just seems like a guy who has a good chance of improving quickly in the NFL. Moving down the list, I wouldn’t fuck with Portis and I don’t wish that kind of headache on anyone. Constantly worrying whether a guy’s knee is going to blow out is not fun. I imagine it’s even less fun for him. Finally, my favorite running back not on the list is Reuben Droughns.

dog football
Published in: on July 23, 2007 at 6:55 pm  Leave a Comment  

High Sierra Serenade

I like Camp Lo. This statement isn’t something that should surprise anyone who knows me or anyone who spent much time listening to rap music in the 1997-2000 “Everything’s fine, but trouble’s coming” era of hip hop. Back then, they were just another rap group who put out a hot album then went back to the studio, with big things expected of them. Sadly, they fell victim to the malaise that claimed a lot of groups of the era, putting out a mostly forgettable followup in 2002. While I initially intended this post to be a love poem to Uptown Saturday Night, Camp Lo’s 1997 opus, inspired by the shuffle on my iPod, some internet research expanded the scope a bit. They have a new album coming out soon, and by soon, I mean next Tuesday. Produced entirely by Ski, the man behind the boards on Uptown Saturday Night, it seems deliciously like the “return to form” record that their fans have been waiting a decade for.

It’s worth noting that Camp Lo has always been a group with a fully realized sense of aesthetics. Impenetrable slang, beats drenched in blaxploitation soundtrack cool and impossibly smooth, Camp Lo stood out. Even more so today they sound like nothing else. Aesop Rock, oddly, has come to closest to co-opting their sense of lyrical rhythm, exchanging the slang for cultural references and the cool with pretension. But has anyone else put out anything even remotely similar sounding? They’re a group that basically can’t be bitten, a rare commodity in the world of rap.

The quick snippets I’ve heard from their new record, Black Hollywood, have sounded good. Nothing as inspired as Luchini, but that’s a tall standard to hold anyone up to. The first joint is streamed of allhiphop.com and is real smooth. Possibly too smooth for the hard rocks out there who demand M.O.P. levels of intensity on every jam. I think it’s a good augur for the record.

‘Ticket for 2′ [allhiphop.com]

The second joint got posted today over at Straight Bangin’ and is titled Sweet Claudine. I’m fairly certain that the sample is taken from the Claudine soundtrack, where Gladys Knight and the Pips recorded songs written and produced by Curtis Mayfield. I’ll have to pull the soundtrack out and confirm this. Their raps, at least, reference the movie explicitly, so I think it’s a safe bet. The soundtrack is excellent, featuring the smash hit ‘On and On.’ The movie itself leaves something to be desired, however. It shows it’s age, but it’s a fairly cute little film. Claudine is a single mother with six kids, all of whom are predictably wacky. One is mute, the oldest daughter gets impregnated, the oldest son joins a nondescript black nationalism group and gets a vasectomy in a show of solidarity. The film also features an extended sequence where a robust looking James Earl Jones wanders around his apartment, post-sex, his nudity barely obscured. It’s all a little odd, but I am glad I sat down and saw it. (And by that I mean, I’m glad I continued to lie on the couch at 2 am when it came on.) The song is similarly cute.

‘Sweet Claudine’ [Straight Bangin’]

There’s another track posted at spinemagazine ‘Soul Fever’ is probably my favorite. It just sounds like it should. The rapping is a little less complex than back in the day, but it’s still the Camp Lo style that can’t be found anywhere else. The link is for the mp3 file, since I’m unsure of how to link to their news.

‘Soul Fever’ [spinemagazine.com]

While I wish one of these leaked songs was classic material, they’ve sounded nice enough for me to give the album a chance. This year has had some decent releases from rappers who were thought washed up (Prodigy, Redman) and I hope Camp Lo keeps it going.

For people in NY, I also caught a mention at spinemagazine of a show their doing on Monday the 23rd at Element. Free admission! Rich Medina and Bobbito spin to open, doors at 10 pm. Although, the website mentions ominously that the dress code is strictly enforced, meaning they reserve to right to not let you in if you look like your broke ass won’t be buying any drinks. I’ve never seen them before and the prospect of seeing Luchini performed live is fairly exciting. It might just be enough to get me to actually leave my apartment for once.

Published in: on July 19, 2007 at 5:38 pm  Leave a Comment  

Second Round: QB Analysis

Last week saw the beginning of Easy Mode’s preseason analysis of fantasy football. My co-author kicked off the first round properly with a look at the running back. And now, we move on to my quarterback rankings.

qb

I’m not going to write nearly as much about my rankings as I don’t have very much faith in my abilities as a football scout. There are experts out there who spend far more time than I pondering the subject of who is the fifteenth best quarterback in the NFL. There is a fairly high bar to becoming an acknowledged fantasy football expert, and while that bar may consist in part of an ability to market yourself as an expert, it is the only workable foundation I can come up with to determine a player ranking system. I would prefer to do an analysis of the past success of each expert’s picks, but that seems like a bit much work and it’s probably far too difficult to find the historical data, anyway. The next best thing to using the best expert (well, I can think of a few different methods if I had reliable data on past success rates) is to use the entire group of experts. Most people probably do something similar by employing a variety of experts’ lists, but I’ve gone ahead and averaged out the picks from a group of experts.

I picked my experts by trying to use the more popular fantasy football websites that already have QB preseason rankings up. It would be nice to employ statistical weights based on site popularity, but my lack of both motivation and knowledge of statistics once again rears its ugly head to foil my plans. So, this is just a simple averaging of eleven experts (technically, I used yahoo’s combined rankings which is the average of four experts plus public voting, I had no real reason not to use all four experts’ picks separately but that seemed like I would be favoring Yahoo unduly, whatever). I realize that a lot of people prefer close examinations of various stats and such, but like I said before I have no confidence in my ability to predict the future. Furthermore, I don’t know of any particular performance prediction method which is superior to others, and I don’t trust my ability to recognize such a method in any event.

magic

Without further ado, here are my rankings of the top 30 quarterbacks as voted by eleven experts from such websites as espn.com, cnnsi.com and sportsline.com. The average ranking is the first number after the player’s name and the standard deviation is the second. I realize this is very much amateur hour at the statistical analysis of fantasy sports table, much less the statistics table.

1. Manning 1.00 0

2. Palmer 2.55 0.82
3. Brees 3.27 1.10
4. Brady 3.82 0.98
5. Bulger 4.82 1.17

6. McNabb 6.82 2.68

7. Young 8.55 2.38
8. Kitna 8.91 2.77
9. Romo 9.64 1.86
10. Hasselbeck 9.73 1.62
11. Vick 10.64 3.20

12. Leinart 12.45 2.66
13. E. Manning 13.73* 2.83
14. Cutler 13.73* 4.43
15. Rivers 13.91 2.39

16. Roethlisberger 15.45 2.11
17. Favre 16.09 1.51

18. Smith 19.73 1.95
19. Losman 19.82 3.16
20. Grossman 20.91 3.88
21. Delhomme 21.00 1.48
22. Pennington 22.00 2.72
23. Schaub 22.09 3.45
24. McNair 22.20 2.49

25. Campbell 24.50 2.22
26. Green 25.80 2.94

27. Leftwich 27.60 2.17
28. Jackson 28.20 2.94
29. Garcia 29.20 3.89
30. Russell 30.78 2.39

*The tie for 13th place went to Eli Manning because his standard deviation was lower. One website (fantasyfootballtoday.com) ranked Cutler at 24th. I try to be risk averse in my draft picks, so I went with the safer of the two. If you don’t know what standard deviation is, my hazy recollection/wikipedia lookup definition is that it’s a measure of how closely the data points are grouped around the mean. So, a lower standard deviation means that the rankings were more closely grouped around the average ranking for that individual player.

The spacing represents some tiers that I think exist in the list, although I’m probably forcing things a bit. One thing that I can say without reservation is that every expert that I’ve come across puts Peyton at number one. The next four picks, tier 1.5, are fairly evenly spaced out. No one in the top five received a lower ranking than six. McNabb (tier 1.75) would continue the trend of evenly spaced out picks, but two websites ranked him at twelve. He’s an injury risk and maybe even a personality risk, what with the dog fighting and whatnot. Seven through eleven, tier 2, have regular spacing and not too many rankings that diverge significantly from the norm. One guy ranked Vince Young low, two guys did the same to Kitna, and Vick has the highest standard deviation of the bunch with experts either loving or hating him, relatively speaking. The next significant jump in rankings comes up number twelve with Matt Leinart. Leinart through Rivers seem to be tier 3, although I could be reading my data incorrectly here. Cutler is the biggest gamble in that group with picks ranging from 9th to 24th. Without that 24th pick, Cutler would move up a pick and be just behind Leinart. Roethlisberger and Favre are probably the entirety of tier 4. You can see the rest of the tiers just as easily as I can write them out here, so I’ll leave that to you, gentle reader. Hopefully, you don’t find yourself trying to decide between Pennington and Schaub in any event.

dog

As the rankings get lower, the list becomes increasingly dodgy. Not every website ranked every player, so I had to finagle things a bit. In fact, I have a total of 47 quarterbacks ranked using this method, but the bottom of the list probably leaves out some players due to my laziness. As a point of interest, Kerry Collins is the worst ranked player for whom I wrote down rankings data. He just barely edged out Trent Dilfer for this honor.

I have a bit more analysis of the less useful variety. Of the websites that I used, fantasyinsights.com probably had the rankings closest to the average. Technically, Yahoo won this award but their rankings were already an average and they only 22 picks, so they got voided. For the most divergent rankings, ESPN tied with fantasyfootballtoday.com for the wackiest/ballsiest quarterback rankings. ESPN apparently has high hopes for Vick and Rivers. Jamarcus Russell easily beat out pretty boy Brady Quinn with Quinn coming in a distant 36 or so to Russell’s 30 spot. With that, my dispassionate look at quarterback rankings is complete. Good luck to you all, unless your in my league.

collins

Edit: Today’s announcement of Vick’s indictment might have some effect on his fantasy ranking.

Published in: on July 17, 2007 at 6:39 pm  Comments (1)  

The Next Link

I’m a huge fan of passive aggression. This site is so right up my alley. Hilarious.

An interview with DJ Too Tuff, of the infamous golden age Philly rap group Tuff Crew.

The definitive Rickey Henderson. I would have included the story from Moneyball, where a confused, minor league Rickey keeps stealing bases when his coach gives him the takeoff sign.

I’d just like to go on the record as saying that I find little levity in stories about drug dealing and street crime. Drug dealing midgets, however, are a different story. The first line of the article is absolute gold.

DJ PRZM, best known by me as the producer behind Camu Tao’s ‘Hold The Floor’ has passed away.

People in New York apparently have started throwing CD’s out because they don’t have any use for them. [Subscription required]

Tiny turtles are coming back! Huzzah!

Bun B is that dude. Great interview. Hopefully, one day, the UGK record will actually come out. He’s also started blogging.

The top ten videos of snakes fighting various creatures. As I typed this I noticed that there was a tiny bug inside the stylish clear plastic that comprises the base of my Apple keyboard. I killed it by using the spacebar with extreme prejudice.

Ten Politically Incorrect Truths About Human Nature. I find this sort of thing interesting, but don’t put too much stock into it. Number 8, about why men have a mid-life crisis is pretty hilarious.

An interesting idea over at Games for Lunch. How much fun is the first hour with a game. Honestly, I think this might be more important than usual reviews, which tend to focus on a lot of things that the average player doesn’t deal with.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

I’m sorry about the age of some of these links, but it’s been awhile since I started compiling them. I think they’re mostly still humorous. It can be trying to find good links sometimes….

Published in: on July 14, 2007 at 12:00 pm  Leave a Comment  
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