more averaged expert rankings

I think the title of this post is fairly descriptive. I’m pretty much going to do the same thing for running backs (in this post) and wide receivers (in the next post) that I did for quarterbacks. This is not complex and presents little new information. On the other hand, it’s the best system that I can (or will) come up with to rank players for a fantasy draft. You can click here read my previous post for a bit more explanation if you’re interested. My framework was essentially the same. I restricted the website pool to those that had updated in the past month, which only took out a couple, and I added about.com’s expert’s ranking that I had overlooked previously. Please refer to the good Dr. Funkypants’ posts for his rankings and quite a bit more color commentary. While I will attempt to draft like a good robot, without emotion and personal bias, I do have opinions that I will include in this post.

expert

First, on the topic of my quarterback rankings. I’m not a huge fan of this year’s qb pool. Manning, Palmer, Brees, I’m happy, but the leagues I play in tend to draft quarterbacks about 2 rounds ahead of their proper place, good for getting a top notch wr crew but bad for my satisfaction with my qb. I know that you don’t need one of the big three to get sufficient production out of this roster spot, but having to start McNair last year in my two qb league was just painful. I apologize if these qb reviews sound overly cranky but damnit I just don’t like Tony fucking Romo in my top ten. Away we go. Brady is overhyped, and someone with a New England bias will probably pick him over the much more sensible Brees or Palmer. Bulger is boring to watch even in the Martz holdover system and without said system, would be significantly lower. McNabb screwed me once with his injuries, and I don’t think that anyone is willing to bet on him staying healthy all season long. Young is, well, young and still something of a question mark in my mind. I like Kitna, but shit, are we really already at Jon Kitna? I guess I would pick Hasselbeck if push came to shove, but he just isn’t going to get great numbers on the Seahawks. I’m not saying these guys suck. I just wish that I had some better options in my top ten qb list. I will have less to say about the running backs.

dogs

Here’s my quick breakdown on the top 38 running backs in fantasy football followed by some opinion. I will break it down into highly dubious tiers, as I did for the quarterbacks. Standard deviation follows mean rank follows name. If you missed my previous explanation of standard deviation, it’s best thought of as how closely the experts agreed on a player’s rank in this context.

1. Tomlinson 1.00 0.00

2. S. Jackson 2.25 0.45
3. Johnson 3.00 0.85

4. Gore 4.67 0.89
5. Alexander 4.83 1.64

6. Westbrook 6.67 1.37
7. Parker 7.08 1.51
8. Addai 7.42 1.31
9. Johnson 8.92 1.24

10. Maroney 11.25 2.42
11. Bush 11.83 2.42
12. McGahee 12.92 1.62
13. Henry 13.08 3.18
14. Brown 14.00 2.83

15. Jones-Drew 15.58 1.88
16. Portis 15.67 3.60
17. James 16.08 3.00
18. Benson 17.33 1.78
19. T. Jones 18.83 1.85
20. McAllister 19.83 3.10

fight over ball

21. Lynch 21.92 2.91*
21. Jacobs 21.92 2.91*
23. C. Williams 23.50 2.61
24. Green 25.42 3.70
25. Barber 25.92 3.87
26. Lewis 26.17 3.01

27. Peterson (MIN) 27.42 4.19
28. D. Williams 28.17 3.21
29. J. Jones 29.42 3.42
30. Dunn 29.75 2.01
31. F. Taylor 30.92 2.19

32. C. Taylor 33.25 5.07
33. Jordan 33.75 5.07
34. T. Bell 34.83 4.88
35. Norwood 34.91 2.91
36. K. Jones 35.58 4.62
37. B. Jackson 36.33 5.45
38. Betts 36.58 4.62

39. Morency 39.58 3.12
40. Foster 39.83 2.62

*Weird, a tie.

Generally speaking, the running back pool is fairly pleasing. I really like the top five. I’m a Niners fan and Gore was my sleeper pick, shining star last year, but I would still be a bit nervous about having him on my fantasy team with that high of a pick. Everyone seems to be behind him, but he’s only had one great season. I probably would take him fourth still, but I’d definitely need a few good weeks before I stopped being nervous about it. Westbrook scares me as an injury risk. Also, it’s mildly disconcerting to see his running yards before you do the math and add up his combined yardage. The rest of the top nine is good. I particularly like Rudi Johnson. I would also be quite happy with Reggie Bush in my second quarterback spot, not to say other guys around him aren’t good. He just seems like a guy who has a good chance of improving quickly in the NFL. Moving down the list, I wouldn’t fuck with Portis and I don’t wish that kind of headache on anyone. Constantly worrying whether a guy’s knee is going to blow out is not fun. I imagine it’s even less fun for him. Finally, my favorite running back not on the list is Reuben Droughns.

dog football
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Published in: on July 23, 2007 at 6:55 pm  Leave a Comment  

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