ever more averaged experts rankings: te edition!

ozzie newsome

The averaged experts rankings train chugs on. Today, we bring you the tight end list. I should probably do this one last, as I usually use the te spot as my trash position. There will always be managers who draft the top two or three te’s foolishly high, and the rest of the te’s are just too much of a gamble for me to really care. I like having a middling reliable te, and you can almost always get one just before you start picking bench players. No one in their right mind drafts a backup te outside of late bench rounds, anyway, so there’s no reason that a top ten te won’t be available at an appropriate point in a 8-12 team draft. Maybe, if you’re in a league with a huge bench and few active roster spots or a 16+ team league (if so, please invite me), this list will be helpful. Otherwise, you can probably ignore the post and look forward to team defenses and kickers coming soon, or just use it to pick up a late round bargain backup te. In any event, my methodology is the same here as it was for my previous lists. As always, standard deviation follows mean rank (now in bold!) follows name and dubious tiers are plentiful. And away we go.

winslow

1. Gates 1.00 0.00

2. Gonzalez 2.48 1.16

3. Shockey 3.36 0.81
4. Heap 3.98 1.15

5. Crumpler 5.00 1.21

6. Cooley 6.92 1.16
7. Winslow 7.00 1.65
8. V. Davis 7.36 2.18

9. LJ Smith 9.79 1.27
10. Witten 9.96 1.29
11. B. Watson 10.46 1.23

12. Da. Clark 12.94 1.27
13. McMichael 13.17 4.20
14. H. Miller 13.46 2.13

15. Daniels 16.40 2.85
16. Scheffler 17.78 2.88
17. Graham 18.86 2.82
18. E. Johnson 19.75 4.27
19. Olsen 19.96 4.01

20. De. Clark 21.17 4.57
21. Troupe 21.50 2.84
22. Martin 22.03 3.95
23. Pollard 22.29 3.51
24. Scaife 23.19 4.45
25. Z. Miller 24.59 7.21
26. Baker 25.00 3.26
27. M. Lewis 25.91 8.49

28. J. Stevens 28.00 5.04†
29. A. Smith 28.00 3.37*†
30. Royal 29.20 1.10*

casper

*These last two entries went unranked by too many of my sources for me to give them my full support. If anyone knows enough about statistics to know how to account for partial lists in this sort of averaging, I will bequeath to you a nonessential organ of your choosing in return for some help.
†I should give this tie to Smith based on my earlier risk averse use of the lower standard deviation as a tie breaker, but as you can read just above this, Smith’s rank is too shaky to give it to him.

The early tiers are, admittedly, fairly useless. My only issue the top five picks is Shockey. He’s overrated, doesn’t always play and seems like an ass. I would not pick him over Heap, and I might not pick him over Crumpler. That said, I will never have to make that decision because idiots will grab him far above his deserved place in the draft. I would like to end up with Vernon Davis. He would give me a solid 49er to fulfill the necessary support that comes with fanhood. After these picks, the list got increasingly crazy. A fair number of websites only rank about 30-35 te’s. Luckily, they don’t get too crazy. I thought that the standard deviations were surprisingly low for the upper half of the list. There just wasn’t a lot of disagreement among the experts. Actually, Vernon Davis was the only guy who engendered serious disagreement in the top twelve or so, but even that was probably due to confidence in Alex Smith and the niners offense. It makes sense in that tight ends are generally reliable and get short yardage and some touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the agreement among experts coupled with my overall lack of interest in the position gives way to rather scant comments from yours truly. Of the players who did not make the list, the following list at least made most lists: Shiancoe, Pope, Dan Campbell, Wrighster, Wilcox and Heiden. I can’t really imagine being in a situation where it made sense to draft one of them. Of course, those in very large leagues may feel differently.

brent jones

Draft well and good luck.

Note: I like Brent Jones. I’m not saying he’s as good as Winslow, Casper or Newsome.

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Published in: on July 27, 2007 at 5:58 pm  Leave a Comment  

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